WASHINGTON (AP) — Over the past year, inflation in the United States has tumbled from 9% all the way to 3%, softening most of the price pressures that have gripped the nation for more than two years.
Now comes the hard part.
Squeezing out the last bit of excess inflation and reducing it to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target rate is expected to be a much harder and slower grind.
A measure called “core” inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is even higher than overall inflation. It, too, seems likely to slow only gradually. The Fed pays particular attention to core prices as a signal of where inflation might be headed. In June, core prices were up 4.1% from a year earlier, according to the Fed’s preferred gauge.
“We see some challenges in getting that all the way back to 2% quickly,” said Michael Hanson, senior global economist at J.P. Morgan.
The stickiness of inflation could endanger the possibility that the Fed will achieve a rare “soft landing” — a scenario in which it manages to slow inflation down to its target level through higher interest rates without derailing the economy. If inflation were to remain elevated for too long, the Fed might feel compelled to further raise its key rate from its current 5.4%, a 22-year high. Most economists say they think the central bank is done hiking, but only if inflation continues to cool.
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Source: apnews.com
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