Source: Bloomberg —
It’s no secret that the US housing market has been softening as interest rates rise at the fastest pace in decades.
Higher mortgage rates mean the dramatic growth in home prices that we’ve seen over the past two years is beginning to slow. Sales of new homes recently came in at the weakest monthly level since 2018. Meanwhile, purchase applications are down 20% year-on-year, and so on.
But the rapid pace of rate hikes has also resulted in an interesting statistical anomaly. Months of supply — or the number of months it would take for the existing inventory of homes on the market to sell at the current sales pace — has jumped to 4.1 from a record low of just 2.1 back in January of this year. And, as Morgan Stanley strategist James Egan notes, rarely have we seen an increase of this size.
