Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell six points to 34 this month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC) Housing Market Index (HMI). This marks the fourth consecutive monthly drop in builder confidence and is the lowest reading since December 2022.
In the HMI, any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor. During November, all three major HMI indices posted declines – the HMI index gauging current sales conditions fell six points to 40, the component charting sales expectations in the next six months dropped five points to 39 and the gauge measuring traffic of prospective buyers dipped five points to 21.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell one point to 49, the Midwest dropped three points to 36, the South fell seven points to 42 and the West posted a six-point decline to 35.
NAHB added that it was forecasting approximately a 5% increase for single-family starts in 2024, citing an easing of financial conditions due to improving inflation data in the months ahead.
“While builder sentiment was down again in November, recent macroeconomic data point to improving conditions for home construction in the coming months,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “In particular, the 10-year Treasury rate moved back to the 4.5% range for the first time since late September, which will help bring mortgage rates close to or below 7.5%. Given the lack of existing home inventory, somewhat lower mortgage rates will price-in housing demand and likely set the stage for improved builder views of market conditions in December.”
