Black Knight’s Mortgage Origination’s Market Monitor confirms that the surge in rate lock volumes noted earlier in the month continued through the end of January. Overall rate lock volumes rose 32 percent over December levels, ending a nine-month long series of declines.
The Jacksonville, Florida-based company had noted a modest rebound in purchase locks in its most recent Mortgage Monitor , but by months-end refinancing, both rate/term and cash-out were included in the gains. “Mortgage rates declined in January, continuing a trend that began in early November 2022,” said Kevin McMahon, president of Optimal Blue, a division of Black Knight. “Conforming rates dropped 36 basis points from where they were at the start of the year, and we saw that rates associated with those FHA/VA/jumbo locks all came down in kind.”
He noted that the first increase in activity since March 2022 was driven by declining interest rates but also by “seasonal tailwinds.” The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.15 percent in January, down 36 basis points over the month
. The spread between 10-year Treasury rates and the 30-year fixed rate, which has widened over the last year, was 2.64 percent in January. While the 10-year rate has grown 173 basis points since last January, the 30-year fixed rate is up 238 basis points. While declining interest rates pushed refinancing volumes higher, they still represented only 15 percent of January’s activity and both purchase and refi locks are significantly lower year-over-year. Purchase locks were down 44 percent from the prior January while refinancing fell 41 percent. On a geographical level, the largest 20 MSAs by lock volume all saw double-digit growth, with Chicago, Nashville, and Charlotte producing 50 percent month-over-month gains from December.
